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The Big DayMarch 1st, 2012
The big day is here.

My recent thoughts.


Facts are stubborn things; they do not yield unless they are doctored facts. To paraphrase Sunday Nation’s word guru Philip Ochieng, they stand out like the Kenyatta International Conference Center in Nairobi’s skyline. Politics in turn is more of a game of numbers and less a game of morals sadly. Raila’s political career is at stake, he is fighting a fight for his political survival and future in Kenya. And so, if Raila Odinga thinks that if the Supreme Court of Kenya was to invalidate Uhuru Kenyatta’s victory and order for a fresh round of presidential polls he would emerge victorious and any of you believes this thought, I have a bridge across the Indian Ocean for sale. My skepticism id predicated on the fact that Raila as it stands now cannot marshal numbers to beat Uhuru.  Raila made strategic mistakes when he decided to rely on “voters” like Makau Mutua, Ipsos Synovate, Infotrak, Strategic Research, Consumer Insight, Smart Octopus, Facebook, Twitter and Gallup instead of mobilizing his lieutenants to ask “real” people to register in large numbers during the voter registration exercise and turn up in large numbers to vote come 4th March. Currently, Uhuru is busy mending fences and building making amends with the Mudavadi’s of this country while Raila is calling Uhuru and Ruto criminals who ought not to be stepping in State House but serving time in prison. How this is supposed to earn him marks or votes is inexplicable.

So while Raila (who we can consider was the incumbent in the race since only Kibaki ranked higher than him in the political field in Kenya) was busy attending World Economic Forum meetings and dinning and wining with the topnotch executives of the world’s leading brands, Uhuru was busy strategizing and touring the ground. While Friends of Raila (FOR A) were busy chest-thumping about their reform credentials, the Dennis Itumbi led teamuhuru,co.ke brigade was in the trenches preparing for the actual game. In the Art of War, Sun Tzu posits that the, while Hassan Omar (the Mombasa senator-elect) was busy trumpeting how ICC would nail Uhuru, Prof. Peter Kagwanja and his foot soldiers were busy deflating the shots. And so it came to pass that Uhuru beat Raila in the game of numbers.  When Mutahi Ngunyi released his tyranny of numbers document, CORD through Wachira Maina a Constitutional Lawyer retained by Africa Centre for Open Governance (AfriCOG) hit back in a very cavalier manner calling Ngunyi’s take as “wishful thinking” through his “What tyranny of numbers – Inside Mutahi Ngunyi’s Numerology”. Instead of CORD using Ngunyi’s assertions to buttress their fort and claim more territory, they just became pedantic in their response instead of offering a meaningful rebuttal culminating in Raila’s loss.

Those who truly love Raila will tell him that from the look of things, it is game short. He cannot under any circumstance beat Uhuru even if there was to be a fresh voter registration exercise. Not that I do not like Jakom the person, but these are the facts which he has to contend with. The Muthama’s around him are cheating him, they are like the people he refers to in his the King is naked analogy, they will not tell him the truth that he is exposed. While his deputy captain Kalonzo Musyoka has been unreservedly been clear that CORD will abide with the verdict of the Supreme Court, Jakom has been insistent that the court will rule in his favour the way he was too confident that he would win in 90 minutes. We need to slay the dragon of tribalism but we cannot burry our heads in the sand and assume all is well. We must put our shoulders to the wheel.

Going by the voting pattern countenanced on 4th March, we are still a way off from discarding the tribal mentality. (Although we have made positive steps to remained peaceful irrespective of our tribes) From Ukambani, to GEMA, then Rift Valley (Kalenjin) and then Luo Nyanza, it does not amount to hate speech to say that the majority voted along tribal lines based on how their “people” were represented at the various coalitions apex. As much as Raila claims to be a patriot or democrat who is devoid of tribal ideology facts show a different person. Were it a matter of ideology, he would not have teamed up with Kalonzo Musyoka who was deriding him just a few months prior to their union to retire with Kibaki because he was old. He joined hands with Kalonzo based on personal interest, not the national good.

Whether Raila wins his petition against IEBC and Isaak Hassan and gains a new lease of political life, or loses and Uhuru’s victory is upheld and he decides to quit active politics, Raila should be careful about the friends that he picks because his current friends are sinking – and they want to go done with him. It is said that friends should be few but honest and understandably, the cacophony of people around Jakom meant no good to him or his presidential ambition. People like Anyang Nyong’o ought to have been isolated a long time ago – keep in mind the fact that the NHIF fiasco – affected millions of workers while he was in his hubris lecturing us how he was blowing away money on lunch at Nairobi Serena Hotel on what some people earn as a month’s salary. CORD rested on their laurels, the offhand manner and the scale of incompetence in which Jakom’s strategists operated cost him victory and they will have to live with this fact on their consciences. As it stand now, Uhuru’s Jubilee Coalition has an upper hand in both houses parliament and senate.

I now rest my case, but for the rest of us who are not active politicians, our duty is just to watch the vents as they unfold. We are the dances who will dance until the music stops; we are more of catalysts in this process of politics. In my case, I just hope that the government that will be formed will take a fresh look at the tax regime in Kenya with a view of revising it to cater for different types of workers to ensure that we do not pay taxes at the expense of our progression.


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